Congressional '06 Prediction

Although things can change between now and election day, and turnout is always hugely important, I've decided to make my Congressional midterm predictions. Check back on November 8th and we can see if it's as good as my predictions that the Marlins would win it all in 1997 (you can ask my Mother, I really did call that one before the season).
The Senate:
Currently, the score is 55 Republicans, and 44.5 Democrats (Jim Jeffords is the half). According to the the sixth year-jinx average, the Republicans should be expected to lose 6.6 seats, enough to give the Democrats a majority. I don't quite think that's going to happen.
Democratic Victories: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island
Probable Democratic Victories (we'll see 3 out of 4): Missouri, Tennessee, Montana, New Jersey(currently held by a Democrat)
Anyone's guess: Virginia

So, for the 8 most likely seats to change hands, 7 are held by Republicans, and in my opinion the Democrats will probably win 6 of those. That puts our numbers at 50-50.

The House:
As it stands, the Democrats need to win 15 seats to regain control. If this election was taking place 30 years ago, before the massive gerrymandering that we see today, I'd say the Democrats could pick up 45 seats in this election cycle. But, the districts are what they are, so we have about 30 "in-play" districts, although that number varies widely depending on what polls you look at. So how many can we expect the Democrats to actually steal? And will they lose any of their own seats?
Well, the Mark Foley seat is switching to Democrats, most likely along with the chairman who knew about the messages. Throw in Tom Delay's old seat, and there are 3 slam dunks due to scandals right there. Add in two races the Republicans have pulled out off, three really vulnerable Pennsylvania seats, three vulnerable Indiana seats, and a couple in Connecticut, and we're already looking at 13 seats off-the-top that the Democrats have a very good chance at. There are a few more in the Midwest that are possible pick-ups, and after a couple of surprises, I predict a net gain of 19 seats for the Dems, with possible one loss in there(Duckworth in Illinois). That would give them a comfy majority and hopefully a little oversight on the President. The Democrats haven't handily won a Congressional election since 1992, so many seem to be of the opinion that they can't take control this year. That could not be further from the truth, and is myopic, insulated logic. Elections are cylical, and people get tired of the status quo eventually. If you give any party power for a significant amount of time, they are bound to screw it up, and I don't think any sane person is happy with the Republican-dominated 109th's performance. I fully expect angry voters to kick out some incumbents that seemingly are safe today.